September 26, 2023

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Tropical Update


DOTHAN, Ala. (WTVY) – A complicated scenario is unfolding across the Northern Gulf Coast and the Northern Gulf of Mexico for this week. Widespread showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf Monday will be aided further by upper-level energy drifting overhead and stalling. Given very warm water temperatures in the middle to upper 80s, combined with upper-level winds relaxing some as the week progresses, tropical development will be a possibility, but not a guarantee.

There are many computer model differences, but this scenario shown through mid-week seems plausible. A weak area of low pressure may move northeastward into the coast around Alabama by early Wednesday morning, enhancing rainfall. However, lingering energy in the Gulf of Mexico may show signs of development later in the week. *If* this happens and *where* any circulation may go remains questionable, so keep paying attention to the forecast this week.

For the Wiregrass, we’ll see scattered showers and thunderstorms for the next several days. Overall coverage looks to range between 50-60% daily, with not nearly as much rainfall at night compared to during the day. Temperatures will be held down, averaging in the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs.

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